Alternative Wheat Supply Lowers Nigeria-EU Agrifood Trade by 28% in 2025

Two key questions answered in the article:

-Why did Nigeria-EU agrifood trade decline by 28% in 2025?

-How could this changing landscape affect Nigeria's economy?

European Union (EU) exports to Nigeria declined sharply by EUR 455 million, representing a 28% drop in 2025, largely driven by reduced wheat shipments, according to a recent EU report. The decline highlights a shifting trade dynamic as Nigeria increasingly turns to alternative suppliers to meet its domestic demand for key agricultural commodities.

Data from Nigeria’s statistics office shows that Russia emerged as the primary source of durum wheat in 2025. Other major suppliers included the United States, Canada, Argentina, and Lithuania, underscoring a broader diversification of Nigeria’s wheat import sources. Before 2025, Poland and Lithuania were the biggest points of origin of this key produce.

Rising Importance of Durum Wheat in Nigeria

Durum wheat plays a vital role in Nigeria’s food and industrial sectors. It is the primary raw material used in the production of semolina, spaghetti, macaroni, and instant noodles, products that are gaining popularity due to their affordability and convenience.

While bread wheat (Triticum aestivum) remains dominant in overall consumption, durum wheat is preferred for processed food manufacturing. The pasta and noodle segment, in particular, has experienced rapid growth, driven by urbanisation and changing consumer lifestyles.

Beyond food production, durum wheat supports a broad value chain that includes milling, baking, logistics, and distribution, employing millions of Nigerians. It is also gaining traction in niche markets such as quick-service restaurants, supermarkets, and snack production, further boosting its economic relevance.

Cocoa Trade Decline and Ghana’s Gains

The drop in EU-Nigeria agrifood trade was not limited to imports. Nigeria’s cocoa exports to the EU also declined in 2025, dealing a significant blow to exporters. This is particularly concerning given that cocoa and coffee were key drivers of the EU’s rising import bill during the period.

According to the report, EU agrifood imports reached a record EUR 188.6 billion in 2025, marking a 9% increase from the previous year. This growth was largely fuelled by higher prices and increased demand for cocoa and coffee, alongside fruits and nuts.

While Nigeria struggled to maintain its position, Ghana capitalised on the opportunity. Imports from Ghana surged by EUR 1.2 billion (69%) to reach EUR 2.9 billion, with cocoa products accounting for about 90% of the total. This positions Ghana as a major beneficiary of the EU’s growing appetite for cocoa, in contrast to Nigeria’s declining export performance.

Implications for Nigeria’s Economy

The shift away from European wheat imports toward alternative suppliers presents both opportunities and challenges for Nigeria. On the positive side, diversifying supply sources could help stabilise wheat availability and potentially lower costs if more competitive pricing is secured. This would benefit local manufacturers by reducing input costs, improving profit margins, and keeping consumer prices relatively stable amid persistent food inflation. In the long run, it may also strengthen Nigeria’s bargaining power in global grain markets.

However, the broader decline in agrifood trade with the EU raises concerns about Nigeria’s export competitiveness. Reduced cocoa exports mean lower foreign exchange earnings and a weakened foothold in a lucrative international market. As Ghana continues to expand its presence, Nigeria risks losing further ground unless it improves quality standards, boosts productivity, and strengthens trade relationships.

If these trends persist, the impact could ripple across the agricultural value chain, from farmers to exporters, while adding pressure on the naira. Addressing these challenges will require targeted investments and policy reforms aimed at enhancing Nigeria’s global competitiveness in both imports and exports.