Coffee, Cocoa Association Warns Prices Could Surpass $10,000/Tonne

News in Brief:

—Cocoa farmers in Africa face rising production risks as ageing farms, diseases and climate change threaten supply.

—COCEFAAA says stronger investment in farmers is needed to prevent future cocoa shortages and price increases.

The Cocoa and Coffee Farmers Alliance Association of Africa (COCEFAAA) has warned that global cocoa prices could climb beyond $10,000 per tonne if investment challenges affecting African cocoa farmers are not urgently addressed.

The association said that declining support for smallholder farmers, ageing cocoa plantations, climate pressures, and the spread of crop diseases are creating risks to future cocoa supply.

Underinvestment Threatens Africa’s Cocoa Production

COCEFAAA Global President, Comrade Adeola Adegoke, said inadequate investment in cocoa farming communities could worsen production challenges across major producing countries.

He argued that while some international chocolate companies are investing in alternative cocoa production technologies, more resources should be directed towards improving the livelihoods and productivity of African farmers.

According to him, supporting farmers through improved seedlings, disease control measures, and income-improvement programmes remains essential for a sustainable cocoa industry.

Supply Challenges Could Trigger Another Price Surge

The association linked previous cocoa price increases to declining production in key West African producing countries.

COCEFAAA said major cocoa-producing nations experienced significant harvest losses during the 2023 and 2024 seasons, contributing to a global production decline and a sharp increase in cocoa prices.

The organisation noted that prices reached record levels in 2024 before later declining as supply conditions improved.

However, it warned that production pressures could return due to ongoing climate challenges, poor farm conditions and disease outbreaks.

Climate Change and Crop Disease Add Pressure

Adegoke highlighted the impact of climate change and the spread of cacao swollen shoot virus as major threats to cocoa production.

He said without investment in farm rehabilitation, improved planting materials and disease management, supply shortages may continue despite strong global demand.

The association also raised concerns about the pressure placed on African farmers to meet international traceability and environmental requirements without adequate technical and financial support.

Stakeholders Urged to Rethink Cocoa Sustainability Approach

COCEFAAA called on governments, investors, researchers and private-sector organisations to prioritise farmer-centred solutions that strengthen Africa’s cocoa value chain.

Adegoke said innovation should complement efforts to improve farmer welfare rather than replace the role of cocoa-growing communities.

The association is expected to continue discussions on sustainable cocoa and coffee production during the African Cocoa and Coffee Fiesta scheduled for October 2026 in Lagos.

The group said the event will focus on building stronger value chains across Africa while ensuring farmers remain central to the industry's industry.