FG Turns to Private Sector as Milk Import Bill Hits $1.5bn

News in Brief:

— Nigeria explores public-private partnership to bring in 60,000 dairy cattle and boost local milk production to tackle the $1.5 billion annual dairy imports bill.

— Experts warn that production growth alone won't close it without better processing, cold-chain and animal-health infrastructure.

Nigeria spends about $1.5 billion on milk and dairy product imports every year as the Federal Government turns to private investors to boost domestic production.

The Federal Ministry of Livestock Development (FMLD) is reviewing a proposed public-private partnership with Hillview Ranch Enterprises Limited that would bring in 60,000 pregnant or lactating dairy cattle in phases, starting with a pilot batch of 2,500 animals.

Minister Says Goal Is Productivity, Not Just More Cattle

Speaking during the review of the proposal, the Minister of Livestock Development, Idi Mukhtar Maiha, said Nigeria could no longer sustain heavy dependence on imported dairy given its natural resources, market size and workforce.

"Our objective is not simply to import cattle. Our objective is to build a sustainable dairy industry that improves local productivity, strengthens our genetics, creates jobs, empowers livestock farmers and substantially reduces the nation's dependence on imported dairy products," Maiha said.

At full implementation, the Hillview programme is projected to produce about 229.5 million litres of milk annually. The government is targeting an increase in national milk production from around 700,000 tonnes to 1.4 million tonnes within five years.

The Size of Nigeria's Milk Deficit

Nigeria's dairy shortfall is significant. A 2026 study published in Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, using FAOSTAT data, estimated the country produced about 527,000 tonnes of milk in 2022 but imported 927,000 tonnes, exporting only around 3,000 tonnes. On that basis, imports made up roughly 64% of milk available in the country.

That dependence is showing up on shop shelves. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data tracked the average price of a 150-gram tin of Peak evaporated milk, rising to ₦1,055.15 in April 2026, up from ₦994.19 in February, a 6.13% increase in two months.

Experts say importing more cattle will not fix the problem on its own. The Frontiers study, instead, points to weak animal genetics, poor health management, unreliable electricity, limited cold-storage infrastructure, climate stress, and Nigeria's reliance on low-yield indigenous cattle breeds as the deeper constraints on the sector.

A Continent-Wide Problem

Nigeria's gap mirrors a wider African trend. The 2025 African Agriculture Barometer on the dairy value chain, produced by FARM Foundation, Afdi and the Pan-African Farmers' Organisation, found that Africa imported about $7.5 billion worth of dairy products in 2023 against exports of just $1.1 billion, a $6.4 billion trade deficit. Milk powder, fat-filled milk powder and infant formula made up 76% of those imports.

African milk production grew 17% between 2013 and 2023, from 45.5 million tonnes to 53.2 million tonnes, but the continent's share of global output stayed at roughly 5% because global production grew even faster.

Other African markets tell a similar story. Egypt produced about 5.72 million tonnes of milk in 2022 but still imported roughly 2.2 million tonnes. In Senegal, consumers paid an average of about 1,528 CFA francs per litre for regular milk in Dakar as of May 2026. Zimbabwe's commercial dairy herd grew 7.5% to 70,584 cattle in 2025, lifting milk production 6.2% to 121.85 million litres, yet production costs of about $0.63 per litre still outpaced the average producer price of $0.58.

Taken together, the figures suggest that raising milk output alone will not solve Africa's dairy problem. Without stronger processing capacity, cold-chain systems, animal health services, better genetics and functioning market infrastructure, Nigeria and other African markets risk producing more milk while remaining just as dependent on imports and exposed to price shocks.