Food Prices Ease Year-on-Year, Surges Monthly Ahead of Fuel Costs Implications

Two key questions answered here:

-Why has food inflation in Nigeria decreased year-on-year but increased sharply in February 2026?

-What factors are currently driving the recent increase in food prices across Nigeria?

Nigeria’s food inflation showed mixed signals in February 2026, offering cautious optimism for consumers while raising fresh concerns about rising short-term costs and broader economic pressures.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), food inflation dropped significantly to 12.12% on a year-on-year basis in February 2026. This marks a sharp decline from the 26.98% recorded in February 2025, suggesting that food price pressures have eased compared to the same period last year. The drop reflects improved supply conditions for some staples and a relative stabilisation in parts of the food system.

Monthly Spike Raises Fresh Concerns

However, the relief may be short-lived. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation surged to 4.69% in February, a major reversal from the -6.02% recorded in January. This spike highlights renewed pressure on household food budgets, driven largely by rising prices of essential items such as beans, cassava tubers, yam flour, crayfish, millet flour, and ogbono.

The average annual food inflation rate for the 12 months ending February 2026 stood at 19.08%, a notable improvement from 37.40% in February 2025. While this indicates a slowdown in long-term food price increases, recent monthly trends suggest volatility remains a major concern.

Fuel Prices and Regional Disparities Deepen Pressure

A key factor behind the recent surge is the increase in fuel prices, linked to tensions from the US–Iran conflict. Higher fuel costs are already impacting transportation and logistics, making it more expensive to move food across the country. As a result, both urban and rural consumers are feeling the pinch, with reports showing that food vendors and restaurants are either increasing prices or reducing portion sizes.

Transport fares have also risen across major cities and inter-state routes, further compounding the cost-of-living crisis. For many Nigerians, the combined effect of higher food and transport costs is putting additional strain on already tight incomes.

At the state level, disparities remain pronounced. Kogi (26.91%), Adamawa (23.12%), and Benue (21.89%) recorded the highest year-on-year food inflation rates, indicating more severe price pressures in these regions. In contrast, Katsina (5.09%), Bauchi (7.09%), and Imo (7.65%) experienced relatively slower increases.

On a month-on-month basis, Bayelsa (8.81%), Ebonyi (8.51%), and Edo (7.72%) saw the sharpest increases, while Katsina (-0.70%), Nasarawa (0.17%), and Kano (1.39%) recorded declines.

Imported food inflation remained relatively subdued at 6.4% year-on-year, with a modest monthly increase of 0.6%, suggesting that domestic factors continue to play a larger role in Nigeria’s food price dynamics.

As fuel prices and global uncertainties persist, Nigerians may need to brace for continued fluctuations in food costs in the coming months.