Food Prices Fall in August and September as Fuel Costs Ease, But Inflation Persists YoY

Questions answered in this article:

-Why did food prices fall in August and September 2025?

-What role did currency and fuel markets play in food prices? -Are Nigerians really better off compared to last year?

The prices of common food items in Nigeria dropped in August and September 2025, offering households some relief after months of persistent inflation. The decline coincided with a slight reduction in fuel prices and government-led interventions to boost supply.

According to data from this publication and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), staples such as maize, beans, and rice have become cheaper on a year-to-date basis.

For instance, brown beans — a staple in most Nigerian households — declined from about ₦2,000 per kg in June to ₦1,890 in August 2025. Imported rice, which had been trading at ₦2,450 per kg, eased to ₦2,370 in the same period. Maize saw the steepest decline, tumbling from ₦1,179 to ₦1,057 per kg — a drop of over 10% in just three months.

Other staples such as garri, sorghum, and soybeans also experienced slight reductions. In markets across Lagos, Kano, and Abuja, traders confirmed that demand has remained steady while supply improved in August, softening prices.

Government Interventions Drive Market Declines

Government officials have been quick to link these price reductions to the Tinubu administration’s economic reforms. A key measure was the release of grains from Nigeria’s strategic reserves, aimed at flooding markets with cheaper food. Several state governments, including Yobe and Borno, also launched food distribution programmes to cushion vulnerable households.

Beyond emergency grain sales, federal and state authorities have doubled down on input support schemes for smallholder farmers. Subsidised fertiliser and seed distribution in agriculture-rich states such as Gombe, Plateau, Kano, and Jigawa reportedly improved farmers’ access to inputs this planting season.

The Bank of Agriculture (BoA) has also expanded its lending portfolio, offering credit to small-scale producers. Meanwhile, the government’s food import tax waiver, introduced earlier in the year, has been credited with improving supply and discouraging hoarding by middlemen.

However, analysts warn that the impact of these reforms may be uneven. Some states with weaker logistics systems or poor security in rural areas may not feel the full effect of government support, leaving pockets of high prices across the country.

Currency and Fuel Market Shifts Affect Prices

Critics argue that the recent dip in food prices could be more seasonal than structural, pointing to the harvest season when supply naturally increases. They also warn that underlying challenges — a volatile naira and high transportation costs — still weigh heavily on the food economy.

The naira remains under pressure. In September, it slipped to ₦1,565/$ in the parallel market, though the official exchange rate remained more stable at ₦1,533.5/$ at the end of July. Encouragingly, the local currency appreciated slightly by 1.2% in early September, strengthening to ₦1,497/$ after the Central Bank of Nigeria signalled a review of interest rates.

Fuel prices have also eased slightly. The Dangote Refinery cut petrol pump prices to ₦841 per litre in Lagos and the South West, and ₦851 in Abuja, Edo, and Kwara. While NNPC stations still sell at ₦865, private operators have adjusted downward. Lower fuel costs are expected to eventually translate to cheaper transportation and logistics, which remain key drivers of food inflation.

Still, persistent rainfall has worsened the already poor condition of rural feeder roads, limiting the movement of food from farms to urban markets. The Petroleum Marketers Association has also resisted Dangote’s pricing, lobbying for a tax adjustment to protect their margins. This pushback raises questions about whether fuel cost reductions will be sustained.

Year-on-Year Data Paints a Tougher Picture

While month-to-month data suggests some respite, year-on-year (YoY) figures tell a different story — one of rising costs and sustained inflation.

Fresh catfish surged nearly 50% in July 2025 compared to last year, while frozen mackerel and tilapia also climbed sharply. In coastal states such as Rivers and Lagos, smoked fish has become more expensive, straining household protein budgets.

Plantain prices have risen by over 60% year-on-year, particularly in the South East, where traders say higher fuel costs and insecurity along transport routes have inflated costs. Palm oil, which had earlier declined due to increased local supply, has also rebounded, reversing earlier gains.

Bread prices have remained relatively stable, but poultry and beef have risen by about 20% on average, reflecting the higher costs of feed and veterinary inputs.

Market watchers note that these trends highlight the fragility of Nigeria’s food economy: while short-term gains can be achieved through policy measures or seasonal harvests, deeper structural issues — from currency volatility to weak infrastructure — continue to fuel long-term inflation.

Households Still Under Pressure

For many Nigerians, the mixed picture means budgets remain under strain. Families may be paying less for beans and maize than they did earlier in the year, but higher protein and vegetable costs erode those savings. Urban households, in particular, continue to struggle with transportation costs, rent increases, and unstable electricity supply — all of which feed into household food security.

Economists argue that unless reforms address systemic problems such as logistics bottlenecks, insecurity in food-producing areas, and overreliance on imports, price relief will be short-lived.

In summary, August and September brought a rare moment of relief in food prices. But the broader trend remains worrying: Nigerians are still spending more than last year to feed their families, and food inflation continues to cast a long shadow over the country’s economic recovery.