Harvest Impacts Agricultural Commodities Fortunes

Nigeria’s agricultural commodities market showed mixed performance between August and early October 2025, according to AFEX data, as post-harvest supplies, weather conditions, and demand fluctuations shaped trading outcomes across grains, oilseeds, and cash crops.

Among grains, price movements were uneven. Maize prices experienced sharp swings, falling 21.89% in early August due to increased supply, before recovering modestly later in the month. The commodity eventually closed at ₦397.65/kg by October 10, down 3.02% from the previous week.

Paddy rice followed a similar path, climbing 9.83% in late September but dropping 7.49% in early October to ₦543.93/kg as new harvests and imported grains entered the market. Sorghum, meanwhile, remained largely stable, holding at ₦590.48/kg after earlier fluctuations.

In the oilseed segment, soybean prices were volatile, rising nearly 10% in early September before sliding 7.26% by early October to ₦801.05/kg. Market watchers attribute the decline to easing export demand and strong domestic supply.

The cash crop category showed contrasting trends. Cocoa, one of Nigeria’s key export commodities, rose modestly in late September (+4.77%) but fell 4.31% in early October to ₦11,438.15/kg. This was likely influenced by global market corrections and the end of the peak trading season. Raw cashew nuts saw minor fluctuations, closing almost flat (-0.01%) at ₦1,685.44.

Overall, the data paints a picture of a market recalibrating after mid-year price spikes driven by logistics bottlenecks and input cost pressures. Analysts say the ongoing harvest season is helping stabilise supplies, but risks remain from uncertainty about fuel costs and availability, currency fluctuations, and insecurity in key producing areas.

As Nigeria’s agribusiness sector deepens its integration with regional and global value chains, commodity price movements will remain a key indicator of both domestic production strength and external demand pressures.