Higher Yield, Imports Ease Festive Season Rice Price Pressure in Nigeria

News in Brief:

-Higher rice yields and increased imports helped ease festive-season rice prices in Nigeria in 2025, breaking the usual trend of year-end price surges and benefiting consumers.

-The price drop squeezed local producers and investors, many of whom suffered losses after stocking rice in anticipation of higher Christmas demand.

Rice prices in Nigeria typically rise during the festive season as household demand peaks. In 2025, however, this pattern shifted, with prices easing instead of climbing, driven largely by higher yields and increased imports. The unexpected moderation provided relief for consumers but posed challenges for producers and investors who had anticipated a seasonal price surge.

Data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) show that Nigeria’s rice production increased by about 3%, while milled rice output rose from 5,607 tonnes to 5,765 tonnes between the 2023/2024 and 2024/2025 seasons. Although the total area cultivated declined, improved yields compensated for reduced planting, resulting in higher overall output.

Production Gains and Market Supply Dynamics

Market tracking data from the African Exchange (AFEX) indicate that mid-November marked a turning point for paddy rice prices. Prices fell below ₦400 per kilogram, prompting millers to sell 50kg bags of rice at below ₦70,000. Throughout December, prices stabilised around ₦440 per kg, only crossing ₦470 per kg in the first week of January 2026.

By the end of November 2025, Lagos Rice, a government-backed food distribution programme, was retailing at between ₦57,000 and ₦64,000 per 50kg bag. Imported rice was priced even lower, intensifying competition and putting pressure on local producers struggling to maintain margins.

Investor Losses and Mixed Economic Impact

While households benefited from lower prices during the festive season, investors and traders faced significant losses. Chinyere, an investment specialist, described the sharp price decline as unexpected and financially damaging for those who stocked rice in anticipation of Christmas demand.

“Some partners and I bought hundreds of bags of rice at the end of August,” she said. “We planned to sell in December for the Christmas market, but none of us anticipated such a steep price drop.” According to her, some investors were forced to repackage rice into smaller 10kg bags and sell at a loss, while others opted to store their stock in hopes of a future price recovery.