Ivorian Mid-Crop Outlook Brightens as Nigerian Cocoa Farmers Struggle

News in Brief:

-Above-average rainfall in Côte d’Ivoire is boosting expectations of a strong cocoa mid-crop harvest, with farmers reporting improved yields and healthy crop development.

-In contrast, Nigerian cocoa farmers are facing a severe price crash of over 70%, leaving many struggling financially and calling for urgent government intervention.

Cocoa farmers in Côte d’Ivoire are projecting a stronger and more extended mid-crop harvest this season, following above-average rainfall across key producing regions, an outlook that contrasts sharply with the financial strain currently facing Nigerian growers.

The West African nation, the world’s largest cocoa producer, is transitioning from its dry season into the rainy period, which typically begins in April. Farmers report that recent rainfall has exceeded the five-year average in several major cocoa-growing areas, supporting pod development and raising expectations for higher yields between March and August.

In regions such as Soubre, Daloa, Divo, and Abengourou, farmers say harvesting is already underway, albeit at modest levels, with signs of improved productivity compared to last year. The emergence of new leaves on cocoa trees, an indicator of strong crop health, has further boosted optimism among growers.

“We have seen no break in harvesting this season. Cocoa continues to come out of the farm,” said Salame Kone, a farmer near Soubre. Similarly, Marcel Kanga, who farms near Daloa, noted that continued rainfall in April could significantly increase output, despite persistently high temperatures ranging between 29°C and 32.3°C.

Even in areas where rainfall has been slightly below average, such as Agboville and Yamoussoukro, farmers remain confident that soil moisture levels are sufficient to sustain crop growth.

Price Slump Hits Nigerian Farmers

While favourable weather conditions are improving production prospects in Côte d’Ivoire, cocoa farmers in Nigeria are grappling with a severe price downturn that has eroded incomes and heightened financial risks.

Across cocoa-producing states like Ondo, Osun, and Ekiti, farmers report that prices have plunged by more than 70 per cent from 2024 highs. Cocoa, which sold for about ₦14,500 per kilogram in early 2025, now trades between ₦2,000 and ₦2,500 per kilogram, leaving many farmers unable to cover production costs.

The sharp decline has been attributed to increased global supply, driven in part by improved output in Côte d’Ivoire, as well as weakening demand in major chocolate-consuming regions.

Calls for Policy Intervention

Industry stakeholders in Nigeria are calling for urgent government intervention, including price stabilisation mechanisms, input subsidies, and the establishment of a national cocoa board to protect farmers from market volatility.

Analysts warn that without structural reforms, Nigeria’s cocoa sector may face declining participation, particularly among younger farmers, even as neighbouring countries benefit from improved harvests and more coordinated market systems.