Maize Price Falls 42% in 2025 as Higher Output, Imports Reshape the Market

News in Brief:

-Maize prices in Nigeria fell by about 42% in 2025 due to higher yields, increased production, and supportive import policies, easing feed costs and stabilising egg prices for consumers.

-The sharp price decline squeezed maize farmers’ margins, highlighting the trade-off between food affordability and producer sustainability.

Maize prices in Nigeria declined by about 42% in 2025, reflecting a strong supply response driven by improved yields and higher production. Data from the Africa Exchange (AFEX) show that prices fell from roughly ₦540 per kilogram at the start of the year to between ₦450 and ₦480 by mid-year. The downward trend accelerated in the third quarter, with prices dropping to around ₦390 per kilogram in August and continuing to soften toward year-end.

The market reached its lowest point in early December 2025, when maize briefly traded at about ₦305 per kilogram, a sharp contrast to the April peak of ₦570 per kilogram. This steep price correction highlights the extent to which supply expansion outweighed demand growth during the year.

Poultry Feed Costs Ease, Improving Protein Affordability

The sustained drop in maize prices had notable ripple effects across the poultry industry, where maize is a major feed component. Lower feed costs reduced production pressure for poultry farmers, contributing to relative stability in egg prices during the second half of 2025.

Vendors reported fewer supply disruptions and less frequent price increases compared with 2024, when high feed and fuel costs pushed egg prices sharply higher. With both input and energy costs easing in 2025, poultry products, especially eggs, a key protein source for millions of Nigerians, became more affordable for households.

Production Growth and Imports Create Mixed Outcomes for Farmers

Production data reinforce the supply-driven nature of the price decline. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that Nigeria’s maize production rose from 11,053 tonnes to 11,217 tonnes in the 2024/2025 planting season, largely due to yield improvements. The trend is expected to continue, as the cultivated area is projected to expand in the next planting season.

However, increased output was compounded by higher maize imports as the government sought to curb food inflation. While this policy stance has delivered short-term consumer relief, many maize farmers have lamented losses, citing sales below expected price levels to remain competitive. This dynamic underscores an emerging tension between inflation control and farm profitability, raising questions about the long-term sustainability of maize production without targeted farmer support.