Nigerian Farmers Suffer Losses Despite International Trade Hitting ₦5tn

News in Brief

-Nigerian farmers are recording losses on maize and rice products as rising input costs exceed earnings, even though official data show multi‑trillion‑naira food imports and exports moving through the economy.

-Experts warn that key staples face production shortfalls and supply deficits, with surpluses now heavily dependent on imports and strategic reserves.

Official data from the Presidency’s food systems unit indicates that Nigeria’s food economy is under pressure and many Nigerian farmers are running losses on major staples, even as food trade flows edge towards ₦5 trillion.

These figures were revealed at a National Agribusiness Policy Mechanism (NAPM) workshop in Abuja, convened by the Presidential Food Systems Coordinating Unit (PFSCU) under the Office of the Vice President.

The workshop, which reviewed the performance of the 2025 wet season across 13 pilot states, also assessed prospects for the 2025 to 2026 dry season using production, trade and farmer survey data. 

Data presented at the workshop paint a food economy under structural pressure, with rising costs squeezing farmers' margins as analysis showed that production shortfalls, elevated input costs and high import bills defined the 2025 wet season, leaving many farmers unable to cover their costs on key staples like maize and rice.

Maize farmers who participated in the pilot projects recorded average production costs that exceeded average revenues per hectare during the 2025 major wet season, resulting in negative margins. 

For example, the average maize production cost was estimated at ₦726,000 per hectare, while revenue averaged about ₦685,440, resulting in a loss of roughly ₦40,560 per hectare.

Meanwhile, rice farmers faced average costs of about ₦750,200 per hectare against revenue of around ₦729,980, translating into losses of about N20,220 per hectare.

Maize production across the pilot states fell by about 2.8% due to reduced acreage and lower yields. Rice output declined by nearly 8% following a drop in cultivated area and weaker profitability.

However, other crops performed better. Soybean production rose by about 38%, driven by higher yields and expanded land use, with average profits estimated at more than ₦400,000 per hectare. Sorghum output fell by about 1% but remained marginally profitable due to lower input costs and higher tolerance to climate stress.

Supply Deficits

Food balance simulations under the NAPM framework still showed supply deficits for maize, soybean and sorghum, with domestic availability falling short of estimated demand. Maize availability was estimated at about 11.43 million tonnes against domestic demand of roughly 12.2 million tonnes.

Soybean availability stood at about 0.69 million tonnes compared with demand of about 1.1 million tonnes, while sorghum also recorded a shortfall. Rice was the only major staple with a simulated surplus, supported by imports estimated at 3.2 million tonnes and reserves of about 1.88 million tonnes.​

Marion Moon, Technical Assistant on Agriculture in the Office of the Vice President and Secretary of the PFSCU board, told participants that NAPM was designed to shift agricultural decision‑making away from fragmented, ad‑hoc interventions towards coordinated, data‑driven planning.

She explained that the mechanism aims to align policies and investments across federal, state and local governments, using real‑time data to anticipate supply gaps, guide support to producers, and stabilise food prices for consumers.

Nigeria's Import Dependence

PFSCU officials also highlighted the scale of Nigeria’s dependence on foreign food supplies, noting that the country’s food import bill in 2024 was close to ₦6 trillion, a trend echoed by independent trade and FX utilisation analyses that place food and beverage imports at roughly ₦6.6 trillion for the year.

Stakeholders at the meeting warned that this level of import dependence leaves the economy exposed to global price swings and logistics shocks, especially when local farmers are not earning enough to reinvest and expand production.

Government Policy

Customs data presented at the workshop showed that Nigeria imported several trillions of naira worth of food commodities during the last major food crisis period, while exports of agricultural and agro‑processed products were estimated to be in a similar multi‑trillion range.

Officials from the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) said the government deliberately opened the door to imports of unprocessed staples such as paddy rice and wheat during the 2024 crisis to boost domestic supplies for local processors and put downward pressure on prices. 

Deputy Comptroller General of Customs in charge of Strategic Research and Policy, Dera Nnadi, told the gathering that the large import and export flows demonstrate significant production and processing capacity but also expose weak links in storage and post‑harvest management that reduce what farmers take home.

He urged state and local governments to complement federal efforts by investing in silos, warehouses and processing infrastructure so that farmers do not have to dump produce on the market in raw form at low prices.

Nnadi added that customs now routinely shares detailed food trade data with the PFSCU and NAPM to help refine policy responses, while also monitoring global food price movements and enforcing import rules in collaboration with quarantine and food safety agencies.

He cautioned, however, that official trade statistics still miss a significant share of informal cross‑border food flows, and stressed that customs implements, rather than makes, food and trade policy, placing the responsibility for strategic direction on the Presidency and relevant ministries.