Nigeria’s Agricultural Productivity Problem: More Land, But Not Enough Yield

Questions answered in this article:

— Is Nigeria’s agricultural growth driven by higher productivity or simply more land being cultivated?

— Why is Nigeria still struggling to meet food demand and compete in agricultural exports despite producing large volumes of crops?

— What does Nigeria need to do to produce more food from the land it already cultivates?

Nigeria’s agriculture is growing, but rising food imports suggest that this growth does not translate into improved food self-sufficiency or stronger export competitiveness. 

However, the real challenge is not that Nigeria needs more farmers. The data reveals that the bigger problem is how much they produce from the land, labour and inputs available to them.

This distinction between production and productivity is important. Production can increase simply because more land is brought under cultivation. Productivity, however, improves when farmers produce more from the same amount of land or inputs.

Recent data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) show that Nigeria's production of several major crops has increased in recent years. In maize, for instance, Nigeria's 2025/26 production was estimated at 11.7 million metric tonnes (MMT) from about 5.2 million hectares, equivalent to roughly 2.2 tonnes per hectare. The USDA also noted that the country's harvested area was higher than the previous year.

This illustrates an important pattern: higher output does not automatically mean that farmers are becoming more productive. If production rises alongside a larger harvested area, the country may simply be cultivating more land rather than extracting significantly more from each hectare.

Nigeria’s Large Harvested Areas Hide a Yield Gap

Corn production statistics exemplify Nigeria's productivity challenge.

In the 2025/26 production year, Nigeria had one of the world's largest areas dedicated to maize harvesting, with about 5.2 million hectares. USDA data place Nigeria among the major maize-producing countries, but its yield remains considerably below that of leading producers.

The United States, for example, operates at a much higher level of productivity, meaning that it can obtain significantly more grain from each hectare. This is one reason agricultural comparisons cannot rely on production volumes alone.

The same issue appears across other crops. Rice and palm-related products have recorded periods of higher production, but these increases have often coincided with changes in harvested area. Conversely, when production falls, reductions in harvested area can account for a significant part of the decline.

The implication is straightforward: Nigeria cannot rely indefinitely on expanding cultivated land to increase agricultural output. Land, labour and other resources are finite, while the country's food requirements grow.

Sorghum Shows the Cost of Low Productivity

Sorghum provides another illustration of the problem.

Nigeria is one of the world's major sorghum producers. USDA data for 2025/26 put Nigeria's sorghum production at more than 6 million tonnes, placing it among the leading producers.

Yet Nigeria's large production volume does not necessarily translate into a strong position in international sorghum trade. Much of the crop is absorbed by domestic demand, leaving less available for export and limiting the country's ability to capture more value from its position as a major producer.

The relationship between land and output becomes even more revealing when Nigeria is compared with countries that achieve higher yields. Sudan, for example, has historically cultivated a very large area of sorghum but has faced similarly low productivity. Meanwhile, countries such as the United States and Brazil have been able to generate large volumes from comparatively smaller areas because of higher yields.

In concrete terms, the US and Brazil only need a combined 4.6 million hectares to produce 18.8 MMT of the same crop, while Nigeria and Sudan get 9.5 MMT from 11.3 million hectares.

The lesson for Nigeria is not simply that farmers need to cultivate more hectares. The greater opportunity lies in producing more from hectares that are already being cultivated.

That requires closing the yield gap through better seeds, improved agronomic practices, reliable water supplies, soil fertility management and timely access to inputs.

What Nigeria Needs to Close the Productivity Gap

Several factors contribute to the productivity gap.

Improved varieties and quality seeds are among the most important. Higher-yielding varieties that are better suited for the climate can provide better resistance to pests, diseases and environmental stresses while improving output per hectare. However, improved genetics only deliver their potential when farmers also have access to the inputs and practices required to support them.

Agronomic management is another major factor. Planting dates, spacing, weed management, fertiliser application and pest control can all affect final yields. Nigeria's challenge is therefore not simply about getting more farmers to plant; it is also about ensuring that farmers have the knowledge, inputs and services required to manage crops effectively.

Water availability is equally important. Much of Nigerian agriculture remains dependent on rainfall, exposing farmers to delayed rains, droughts and flooding. The World Bank notes that less than 1% of Nigeria's farmland is irrigated, leaving most farmers vulnerable to increasingly unpredictable weather. Irrigation programmes in Nigeria have demonstrated how better water management can increase productivity and resilience.

Input affordability and access also matter. Fertiliser, improved seed and crop-protection products can raise productivity, but high transport and input costs can prevent farmers from using them profitably. Research on Nigerian maize farmers found that improving transport costs and combining fertiliser use with practices such as irrigation and quality seed could improve the economics of input use.

Finally, mechanisation and commercial farming systems can help farmers complete operations such as land preparation, planting and harvesting at the right time and over larger areas. Mechanisation alone, however, is not a substitute for better seeds, agronomy, soil management and water.

The scale of Nigeria's productivity challenge is therefore not simply a question of how many farmers are working on the land. It is a question of how effectively those farmers can access technology, finance, infrastructure, information and markets.

Conclusion

Nigeria's agricultural challenge is increasingly a productivity challenge. The country has substantial farmland, a large farming population that dwarfs the United States’ and the potential to be a major producer of food and agricultural commodities. But expanding production by putting more land under cultivation will have diminishing returns if yields remain low.

Closing this gap requires a shift in emphasis: from more hectares to more output per hectare.

That means expanding access to improved seeds, making fertiliser and other inputs more affordable, improving irrigation, strengthening extension services, increasing mechanisation where economically viable, improving rural infrastructure and giving farmers better access to markets and finance.

For Nigeria, the objective should not be merely to produce enough food today. A more productive agricultural sector would allow the country to produce more food from existing farmland, reduce pressure to continually expand cultivated areas, create larger surpluses for processing and exports, and generate more value from the millions of people already engaged in agriculture.