Nigeria's Agrifood Exports to the EU Slow Sharply in Early 2026 as Cocoa Trade Weakens

Questions answered in this article:

—Why did Nigeria's agrifood exports to the European Union decline in early 2026, and how does the slowdown compare with other major West African exporters?

—What do the export trends reveal about Nigeria's agricultural sector, and what opportunities exist to diversify exports and strengthen future growth?

Nigeria's agrifood exports to the European Union (EU) have suffered a significant slowdown in early 2026 after two years of strong growth driven largely by cocoa exports, reflecting weaker global cocoa prices, lower import demand from Europe and domestic export challenges.

According to data from the European Commission, the value of Nigeria's agrifood exports to the EU increased from €1.685 billion in 2024 to €2.135 billion in 2025, highlighting the country's growing role in supplying agricultural products, particularly cocoa, to the European market.

However, that momentum has weakened considerably. Between January and April 2026, Nigeria exported agrifood products worth €489 million, down from €833 million during the corresponding period of the previous year, representing a 41% decline.

The decline mirrors a broader trend across West Africa's cocoa-producing economies. Cameroon recorded a 38% drop in agrifood export value to the EU during the same period, while Côte d'Ivoire, the world's largest cocoa producer, experienced a 17% decline.

The European Commission attributed the weaker import values largely to falling cocoa prices and reduced import volumes, which affected several commodity groups.

Lower Cocoa Demand Weighs on Export Earnings

Cocoa remains Nigeria's largest agricultural export to the European market, making changes in global demand and pricing particularly significant for the country's export earnings.

The Commission's report showed that imports of cocoa, coffee, cereals and oilseeds into the EU all declined during the first four months of 2026. The reduction was driven by both lower international prices and softer purchasing volumes after record market activity in previous periods.

Nigeria's domestic trade data points in the same direction.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria exported ₦1.172 trillion worth of agricultural goods between January and March 2026. This represents a 31.2% decline from ₦1.704 trillion recorded during the first quarter of 2025 and an 11.39% decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2025.

Raw cocoa beans recorded one of the sharpest declines, with export value falling by about 52% between the first quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026.

The downturn extended beyond cocoa. Cashew nut exports also fell from ₦172.3 billion in the first quarter of 2025 to ₦134 billion in the corresponding period of 2026. Industry observers attribute much of the decline to Nigeria's restrictions on raw cashew exports, which have reduced export volumes while encouraging domestic processing.

Changing EU Import Patterns Create New Opportunities

Although demand for several traditional commodities weakened, the European Commission's latest trade report indicates that import demand is shifting rather than disappearing.

Among all agrifood categories, fruits and nuts recorded the strongest growth, with imports rising by €591 million (6%), led by higher purchases of avocados and hazelnuts.

Imports of beef and veal also increased by €246 million (25%), supported by supply shortages and elevated meat prices within the EU. Meanwhile, imports of margarine and other oils and fats grew by €174 million (12%), largely driven by increased demand for coconut oil.

The changing import profile suggests that while cocoa will remain an important export commodity for Nigeria, future growth may increasingly depend on diversifying export products and expanding value-added processing.

For Nigeria, strengthening processing capacity, improving compliance with EU market standards and promoting higher-value agricultural exports could help reduce dependence on a single commodity and improve resilience against fluctuations in global cocoa prices.