Rising Imports Continue to Shape Nigeria's Agriculture Industry in 2025

News in Brief:

-Nigeria’s growing reliance on agricultural imports exposes the country to global market shocks, exchange rate volatility, and rising food prices.

-Strengthening local production and agro-processing could reduce this dependence while improving food security, job creation, and economic resilience.

Nigeria’s agricultural industry continues to operate under the growing influence of foreign markets, leaving it vulnerable to geopolitical risks. 

As many citizens have witnessed, petrol prices surge due to higher crude oil prices caused by the ongoing Iran-US conflict. Experts warn that the food and other agro-reliant industries could face similar shocks if local production is not addressed.

Latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed a worrying trend; imports are shaping Nigeria’s key industries.

For example, between 2022 and 2025, imports of live animals and animal products surged by 212%, rising from ₦549.64 billion to ₦1.706 trillion. Vegetable product imports more than doubled in the same period, rising to nearly ₦3 trillion from ₦1.3 trillion.

The leather tanning and finishing industry is also seeing increasing trade with foreign markets. In the past year, they purchased raw hides, skins, leather, and fur skins worth about ₦350 billion to manufacture finished goods in Nigeria.

Foreign textile articles are also gaining market ground in Nigeria, rising from ₦365 billion in 2022 to more than ₦1 trillion in 2025.

The Export Market Question

It is crucial to investigate how the trade has moved in the other direction to provide a balance, if one can be found. Trade is typically a two-way transaction, and if foreign markets are expanding into Nigeria, it should provide a vehicle for local traders to ride on and reach more buyers.

In general, the trade balance between imports and exports has improved, from a deficit of -1.42% in 2022 to a surplus of 26.39% in 2025. The live animal and animal product sector recorded a 315% rise in exports between 2022 and 2025, a reflection of the improving trade balance. 

Meanwhile, vegetable product exports from Nigeria increased by 386.45% during the same period. In contrast, exports of raw hides, skins, leather, and fur skins grew by 31.83%, a rate similar to that of textile exports, which expanded by 61%.

In terms of raw value, these exports are dwarfed by their import counterparts, raising the issue of Nigeria buying more than it sells.

Danger of Buying Foreign

When a country depends heavily on foreign supply chains for essential goods such as food, textiles, and agricultural inputs, global disruptions can quickly translate into domestic instability.

Exchange rate volatility, geopolitical tensions, and international market shocks can all push import costs higher, ultimately increasing the prices Nigerians pay for food and other basic commodities. In a country already grappling with inflation and food security concerns, such vulnerability can deepen economic pressure on households.

Another concern is the effect of rising imports on local production capacity. When imported goods dominate the market, domestic producers often struggle to compete due to higher production costs, limited access to finance, poor infrastructure, and inconsistent policy support. This can discourage investment in local agriculture and agro-processing industries, weakening the entire value chain from farm to factory. Over time, this dynamic risks turning Nigeria into a largely consumption-driven market for foreign producers rather than a competitive supplier of agricultural goods.

However, the situation also highlights a strategic opportunity for policymakers. Nigeria possesses vast arable land, a large labour force, and a strong domestic market that could support the expansion of local production and processing industries. 

Strengthening agricultural productivity, improving storage and processing infrastructure, and providing targeted incentives for agro-industrial development could help reduce reliance on imports. By doing so, the country would not only improve food security but also create jobs, retain more value within the economy, and build a more resilient agricultural sector capable of withstanding global market shocks.