Nigeria’s 2026 Agriculture Growth Hinges On Policy, Technology, Others

News in brief:

-Experts say coordinated policy, technology and climate-smart investment will determine agricultural performance in 2026.

-Stakeholders warn that without decisive reforms, food insecurity and import dependence may persist.

Nigeria’s agricultural sector enters 2026 with cautious optimism, as stakeholders project that the right combination of policy consistency, investment, technology adoption and climate resilience could significantly improve productivity, reduce import dependence and strengthen food security.

Experts, speaking in separate interviews, agreed that while opportunities exist, progress will only be sustainable if reforms are pursued in a coordinated and deliberate manner. Without collective action, they warned that recent gains could prove fragile.

Policy Consistency and Investment

Prince Oyewumi Oyedetunde, Editor-in-Chief of Farmers Choice Magazine, said that although official agricultural growth forecasts remain limited, broader economic projections point to modest expansion in 2026.

The country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to range between 4.4% and 4.7%. This macroeconomic outlook could support agricultural expansion if ongoing reforms are sustained. He noted that scaling food sovereignty initiatives, particularly wheat and staple crop programmes, could deepen domestic production and reduce reliance on imports.

Oyedetunde also highlighted National Agricultural Investment Plans and FAO-supported policy monitoring tools as mechanisms for improving accountability and policy consistency.

Technology and Climate-Smart Farming

He further stressed that increased public-private partnerships, investment in processing infrastructure and improved access to finance would unlock productivity across agricultural value chains.

Accelerated adoption of agritech solutions, including digital extension services, precision farming, mobile advisory platforms and solar-powered irrigation, he said, would modernise farming practices, reduce post-harvest losses and boost yields.

In addition, scaling climate-smart agriculture through drought-tolerant seeds, irrigation systems and weather-indexed insurance, alongside improved storage and logistics, would strengthen food security and raise rural incomes.

Food Insecurity Risks and Structural Reforms

Adebowale Onafowora, Managing Director of BIC Farms Concept, described 2026 as a potential turning point, warning that it could become either a year of crisis or a period of green transformation.

He cautioned that despite projected growth in staple production, an estimated 34.7 million Nigerians could face severe food insecurity by mid-2026 due to armed conflicts, post-harvest losses and high transport costs.

Onafowora called for an end to rain-dependent farming, urging the institutionalisation of dry-season agriculture through decentralised irrigation, greenhouses and controlled-environment farming.

Youth Innovation and Value Chain Sovereignty

He also emphasised the importance of youth-led innovation, arguing that agriculture should no longer be treated as a retirement option. According to him, initiatives such as agrithons can accelerate agri-fintech, precision farming and urban hydroponics.

Onafowora added that strengthening value chain sovereignty through local processing of cassava and maize into feed and industrial starch is critical to insulating Nigeria from global supply shocks.

Focus on Value Addition and Market Systems

Oyewole Okewole, Senior Associate Consultant at FutuX Agri-consult Limited, said projections for 2026 must prioritise addressing weaknesses that eroded Nigeria’s comparative advantage in key value chains in 2025.

He identified value addition, storage, post-harvest handling, processing and supply-chain infrastructure as essential to reducing waste and improving farmers’ incomes. He also stressed the need for improved access to affordable credit and modern climate-smart farming techniques.

Targeted Programmes and Policy Support

Okewole expects more targeted agricultural programmes backed by strong policy support, including mechanisation, insurance, capacity development and subsidised inputs.

He also anticipates deeper technology integration, wider access to finance for smallholders and agribusinesses, and stronger partnerships between the Federal Government and international organisations, particularly as 2026 approaches an election year.

Year-Round Farming and Mechanisation

Anibe Achimugu, President of the National Cotton Association of Nigeria, expressed cautious optimism, stressing that implementation in 2026 must be deliberate and disciplined.

He said agriculture is expected to benefit from increased dry-season cultivation, irrigation-led outputs, improved access to mechanisation through service models, and better targeting of inputs using credible farmer data.

Achimugu advocated a transition from seasonal to year-round farming by scaling irrigation and dry-season agriculture, alongside zonal mechanisation centres to make equipment and extension services affordable for smallholders.

Security, Protein Supply and Regional Trade

Sunday Ezeobiora, National President of the Poultry Association of Nigeria (PAN), said agriculture could drive economic diversification, job creation and industrialisation with proper government intervention.

He called for aggressive dry-season production of maize and soya to stabilise poultry feed costs, noting that poultry remains the most affordable source of animal protein for Nigerians.

Ezeobiora also highlighted opportunities in cold chain logistics, processing and regional exports under AfCFTA, arguing that with the right standards, Nigeria could dominate the West African poultry market.

Outlook for 2026

Stakeholders agreed that food security in 2026 will depend on prioritising staple crops and animal protein, improving farmer security and ensuring that productivity gains translate into affordable food.

If the government, the private sector and farmers work in alignment, experts say 2026 could mark a decisive step towards agricultural self-sufficiency and long-term food security for Nigeria.