Nigeria’s Rising Imports, Shifting Exports in Q4 2025

News in Brief:

-Nigeria’s agricultural imports rose sharply in Q4 2025, highlighting gaps in local production of key commodities like wheat and oilseeds.

-While agricultural exports declined year-on-year, they rebounded strongly from the previous quarter, driven mainly by cocoa and sesame seed demand.

Nigeria’s agricultural trade showed mixed signals in the fourth quarter of 2025, with rising imports and fluctuating export performance, developments that carry important implications for farmers, agribusinesses, and policymakers.

Rising Agricultural Imports Signal Local Supply Gaps

Total imports rose to ₦17.25 trillion in Q4 2025, marking a 3.98% increase compared to the same period in 2024. Agricultural imports alone climbed sharply to ₦1.44 trillion, up by over 31% year-on-year. Key imported commodities included durum wheat, crude soybean oil, and frozen fish such as herring. Much of this demand was met by countries like the United States, Lithuania, Argentina, and Norway.

For Nigerian farmers, this surge in imports highlights a persistent gap in local production. Staples such as wheat and vegetable oils continue to rely heavily on foreign supplies, indicating opportunities for local producers to scale up. Expanding domestic production of grains and oilseeds could help reduce import dependence while improving incomes across the agricultural value chain.

Export Performance Shows Recovery but Needs Strengthening

On the export side, Nigeria recorded ₦18.96 trillion in total exports, a 5.25% decline from Q4 2024. However, agricultural exports told a more nuanced story. Although export value dropped 14.11% year-on-year to ₦1.32 trillion, it surged more than 68% from Q3 2025, suggesting a strong recovery over the year.

Cocoa remained the dominant agricultural export, with superior- and standard-quality cocoa beans accounting for a significant share of earnings. Other key exports included sesame seeds, soybeans, and natural cocoa butter. Europe remained the largest market, particularly in countries like the Netherlands and Belgium, while Asia, led by China and India, continued to import sesame seeds.

This export trend reinforces the importance of cash crops in Nigeria’s agricultural economy. However, it also underscores the need for diversification and value addition. Farmers can benefit more by investing in processing and improving quality standards to meet international demand.

Overall, the data points to a critical opportunity: Nigeria must balance rising food imports with increased local production and stronger agricultural exports. For farmers, this means focusing on productivity, embracing improved inputs, and targeting both domestic and international markets to stay competitive in a changing trade landscape.